Thursday, January 20, 2011

Update: Natural Gas

UNG is inching toward firm breakout from its recent trading range.


One of the reasons UNG has lost much more than natural gas futures was the steep contango in the futures market in the past 2 years. The chart below illustrates the shape of the curve at different points in time. Right now, shown as the white line, the difference between front month contract and 6 months out is 4%. Six months ago, shown as the green line, it was over 15%. A year and half ago, shown as the orange line, the premium of the contract 6 month out over the front month contract was 60%! Therefore, UNG rolling futures no longer penalizes its investors like it used to.

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