No, it is not. It is the end of an era. And era of binge drinking and gigantic ponzi spending by Americans and western countries in general. The chart below illustrates best what has happened in the past 30 years. The total debt to GDP ratio of US has exploded from 150% to 360% since 1980. And it has been falling at a sharp rate since the crisis began. Never has it happened before since the world war II. To think the economy is experiencing and will continue to experience a V-shaped recovery is to believe the ponzi scheme to borrowing more money from foreigners to pay off existing liabilities can continue infinitely. Unfortunately, the US consumers' balance sheets have been badly damaged and they are trying to save more for rainy days. The US banks' balance sheets have been badly damaged and they are tightening credit to avoid losing more money on bad loans. It's easier said than done to turn back the clock and ask people and banks to spend and lend like nothings happened. The super leveraging cycle is over. And super de-leveraging cycle has just begun. And it is going to take a long time for it to complete.
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