GLD Support Line

Self-explanatory chart. Look how amazing the 150 day MA has been the support for GLD in the past 3 years.

Gold

Gold has broken the recent down trend. It's possible to retest the 130 range again. If it successfully holds, it's likely to test the high of 140.

Natural Gas

Natural has has been under some pressure lately, unable to break out from the recent trading range. However, it is within the up trend channel established in the past few months. UNG is likely to test the lower bound of the channel around 5.70. But as long as it does not fall below it, the up trend is still intact.

Precious Metals

GLD and SLV had another down day. On the hourly charts, they are moving along the lower boundary of the down trend channels. A tradable bounce may be approaching as they inch closer to important support levels(129 for GLD and 25.5 for SLV).

Update: Natural Gas

UNG failed to effectively break out and close above the 6.40 resistance level. Since UNG invests in NG futures, it makes sense to look at how the underlying futures are acting. It is apparent on the chart that the front month future is actually forming a bearish ascending triangle. Unfortunately, the next likely move is down to test the lower bound of the trading range and hopefully gather energy for another breakout attempt later on.

Update: Natural Gas

UNG is inching toward firm breakout from its recent trading range.

One of the reasons UNG has lost much more than natural gas futures was the steep contango in the futures market in the past 2 years. The chart below illustrates the shape of the curve at different points in time. Right now, shown as the white line, the difference between front month contract and 6 months out is 4%. Six months ago, shown as the green line, it was over 15%. A year and half ago, shown as the orange line, the premium of the contract 6 month out over the front month contract was 60%! Therefore, UNG rolling futures no longer penalizes its investors like it used to.

Natural Gas

Natural gas, especially the ETF UNG, has had a tough couple of years. The natural gas futures have dropped more than 60% from the peak, and UNG has dropped over 90%. However, natural gas may have stabilized and ready to make a move to the upside. UNG formed MACD positive divergence in October, made a higher low in December, and broke its one year down trend today. If it breaks out above 6.40 in the next few days, the trend will likely turn upside.